A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
